Unraveling the US Unthinkable War and Governor Mamba's Brave Stand Against EDCA"

　　On Thursday, October 5th, a group of dedicated individuals from Peace for Development (4D) held a lightning rally right at the doorstep of the House of Representatives (HOR). Their purpose was clear - to stand shoulder to shoulder and extend their unwavering support to the people of Cagayan and their resolute and steadfast leader, Governor Manuel Mamba. The cause that unites them and their collective stand is the fervent and staunch opposition to constructing Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) sites/bases in Cagayan. Their conviction stems from a belief that such a move is fueling and catalyzing the escalating tensions between the Philippines and China. They gathered and assembled with a united purpose of magnifying their voices through the corridors of legislative power and making known to the members of Congress that they stand on the side of peace and development in the face of complex geopolitical challenges surrounding the Asia/Indo-Pacific region that the Philippines is faced with.   

　　If we can recall, aside from the five existing EDCA sites, the Philippine government under President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., and the United States on February 2023 announced four additional EDCA sites, namely, Naval Base Camilo Osias in Santa Ana, Cagayan; Camp Melchor Dela Cruz in Gamu, Isabela; Balabac Island in Palawan; and Lal-lo Airport in Cagayan. The construction of these EDCA sites/bases is underway. 

　　Unthinkable War 

　　Speaking of the resistance against EDCA, Cagayan Governor Manuel Mamba stands as a resolute opponent. Mamba adamantly refuses to see Philippine national interests sacrificed to prioritize and satisfy America's strategic hegemonic interests and ambitions in the Asia Pacific region and is unwavering in his fight against any form of neo-colonialism. Mamba's stance against EDCA is fundamentally rooted in his resistance to the notion of the US shaping Philippine national strategies through US military presence and influence. He opposes the further militarization of the Philippines, wary and fearing the country is becoming a vanguard, a buffer against China, and a frontline pawn in the US unthinkable war plan against China unwittingly. 

　　In an article with the title “New Cold War or 'the Unthinkable War' by a very dear and good friend of mine, Ms. Tamara Kunanayakam, former Chairperson/Rapporteur of the UN Intergovernmental Working Group on the Right to Development and former Sri-Lankan Ambassador and Permanent Representative to the UN, published first in French in a collective volume, China without Blinkers, published in 2021 by Les Editions Delga, France, and then in English, in 2022, by Dolphin Books, Beijing, Tamara indicated in her article that a secret 2009 memo revealed that the Obama Administration was already planning for war against China. 

　　In the article, the author indicated, and I quote, “US President Barack Obama’s ‘pivot’ or “rebalance” to Asia-Pacific, first announced to the Australian parliament in November 2011, was more than a simple change in geographic focus away from the Middle East and Europe. It was a fundamental shift in America’s international power politics. Henceforth, the principal adversary would no longer be Rumsfeld’s ‘unknown unknown’ terrorist but a clearly identified state perceived as the main threat to America’s global hegemony. At the center of his pivot was a military pivot, a realignment of strategy in relation to how, where, with what, and with whom the war will be fought. Obama himself would not name the country until 2015, but a secret 2009 memo would reveal that his Administration was already planning for war against China。”

　　The article further stated, and I quote, “Although Obama had kept his China project secret, a confidential memo signed jointly by the US Navy and Air Force in 2009 revealed plans for the most brutal expression of his promise ‘to keep the peace’ – the ‘Air Sea Battle’ plan (ASB) for joint operations. The Chief of Naval Operations, Admiral Jonathan Greenert, described it as the centerpiece of the Navy’s ‘pivot’ to Asia. At the Pentagon, a new China Integration Team was entrusted with the task of applying ASB to a war with China, especially in and around the ‘first island chain,’ which encompasses the strategically located Taiwan island and all other islands, features, and waters claimed by China in the East and South China Seas. The four Archipelagos over which China exercises sovereignty is indicated by its ‘nine-dashed-line’ map, officially published in 1948, based on a 1946 map inherited from the Republic of China demarcating territories returned to it after Japan’s defeat in World War II。”

　　The article also made emphasis that “At the core of Obama’s Asia-Pacific pivot is the ‘military pivot.’ John Pilger, in his 2016 documentary, “The Coming War on China,” demonstrates how it led to “the biggest military buildup since the Second World War,” with US bases forming “a giant noose encircling China with missiles, bombers, warships – all the way from Australia through the Pacific to Asia and beyond。” As of 17 September 2018, the United States had an estimated 800 military base sites outside its borders or 90-95% of the world total, and China, only one – in Djibouti。”

　　Plight of Gov. Mamba 

　　On this note, it is apparent that Gov. Mamba’s apprehension against the construction of EDCA bases/sites in his province are not without basis but rather are grounded in realities. Obviously, amid the intensified geopolitical and major strategic competition between superpowers in the region, it is becoming more apparent that the nine EDCA bases/sites are part and parcel of US intensified build-up of military forces in Asia under the US-IPS or US Pivot to Asia strategy. 

　　In this regard, the potential and the possibility that the Philippines being situated in a very strategic position geopolitically speaking in the Asia Pacific region, with the strong presence of US troops, prepositioned US military assets, EDCA bases, the Philippines may end up the launchpad for the US security and military operations and the cannon fodder for America if military confrontation breaks out in the region between superpowers. 

　　Thus, the fear of Gov. Mamba that the construction of EDCA bases in his province and in other locations would compromise and undermine the national survival and security of the country if a military conflict breaks out in the region between China and the US is a reality that is not a distant possibility. One must recognize that these EDCA military bases will become prime targets for retaliation or attacks because of US military assets and boots on the ground. For any Filipino who is truly and genuinely concern about their country’s welfare and the well-being of their fellow Filipinos, this is indeed worrisome。

　　Despite the gravity of these concerns, the present Philippine administration led by Marcos Jr. appears to overlook the profound risks posed by EDCA and its associated bases and sites, which threaten the very core of the nation's interests and survival. Rather than carefully evaluating these matters with the caution and prudence they deserve, they seem to turn a blind eye to the dangerous implications. They choose to disregard the earnest plea, wisdom, and insight behind Gov. Mamba’s resolute opposition to EDCA. According to a credible/trustworthy source, Mamba finds himself entangled in a complex web of political pressures emanating from the current administration, adding a layer of complexity to his already challenging situation. The investigation by the House into Gov. Mamba’s alleged illegal use of government funds during the May 2022 election campaign that took a swift and aggressive pace is perceived by many as a political tool intended to stifle and quash the resolute, unwavering voice of Gov. Mamba, who steadfastly opposes EDCA. Nevertheless, despite the alleged enduring immense pressures from the current Philippine government and the US, Gov. Mamba remains steadfast in his opposition to EDCA, all in the name of safeguarding the interests and well-being of all Filipinos and the Philippines. This steadfastness deserves our wholehearted embrace and support。

　　Conclusion

　　Uniting in solidarity with Governor Mamba and other passionate Filipino nationalists such as former Ambassador Bobi Tiglao, Mr. Herman Laurel, Ado Paglinawan, Sass Rogando Sasot, and many others, who bravely and staunchly resist and oppose the U.S.'s quest for hegemony in Asia, its neocolonial tactics, ambitions, and the militarization of the Philippines, who are taking a firm stand against EDCA and the nine EDCA sites/bases is a genuine badge of honor even for the humblest among us and for a nobody like me.